Salisbury vs Hampton & Richmond
National League South, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LWDDW
DLLLWThe score model made a Salisbury win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 5:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salisbury 1.42 – 1.13 Hampton & Richmond.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salisbury win | 44.3% | 32.5% | +11.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.9% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Hampton & Richmond win | 30.3% | 39.6% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 50.5% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 30.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 55.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 34.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salisbury 44.5 / Hampton & Richmond 55.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.