Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
National League South, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WLLDD
WDDDDThe score model made a Chelmsford win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hemel Hempstead 1.27 – 1.31 Chelmsford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead win | 36.3% | 38.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 28.1% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Chelmsford win | 38.1% | 33.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 48.3% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% | 28.3% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 53.4% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.3% | -4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hemel Hempstead 55.4 / Chelmsford 55.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.