Brackley Town vs Scarborough
National League North, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
WLLDW
DLWLLThe score model made a Brackley Town win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brackley Town 1.29 – 1.00 Scarborough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brackley Town win | 43.3% | 33.6% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.4% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Scarborough win | 29.2% | 39.0% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 48.9% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 28.5% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 54.1% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 36.0% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brackley Town 31.9 / Scarborough 60.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brackley Town vs Scarborough in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.