Scarborough vs Spennymoor
National League North, England · 2026-08-18 · 20:45 CET
LWLLD
LLDLLThe score model made a Scarborough win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scarborough 1.39 – 1.16 Spennymoor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough win | 42.3% | 42.4% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 28.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Spennymoor win | 31.6% | 29.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 47.8% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 27.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | 52.8% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.2% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Scarborough 58 / Spennymoor 58.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.