Worksop vs AFC Telford
National League North, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LLLWL
DLLWWThe score model made an AFC Telford win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Worksop 1.63 – 1.63 AFC Telford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worksop win | 38.4% | 38.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 27.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| AFC Telford win | 38.7% | 34.1% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 54.4% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 34.2% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 58.7% | +5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 37.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Worksop 30.5 / AFC Telford 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.