Bedford vs Darlington
National League North, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LWWWW
LLWLLThe score model made a Bedford win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bedford 1.52 – 1.48 Darlington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedford win | 38.9% | 35.7% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 26.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Darlington win | 37.1% | 38.1% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 56.4% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 36.0% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 60.1% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 38.9% | +4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bedford 30.5 / Darlington 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.