Scarborough vs South Shields
National League North, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LWLLD
DDDWWThe score model made a South Shields win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Scarborough 1.21 – 1.39 South Shields.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough win | 32.7% | 21.2% | +11.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| South Shields win | 41.2% | 53.5% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 53.4% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.1% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 54.6% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.1% | 36.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Scarborough 57.2 / South Shields 54.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.