Marine vs Macclesfield
National League North, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WWLLL
WWWLDThe score model made a Macclesfield win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marine 1.42 – 1.63 Macclesfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine win | 33.4% | 27.8% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.9% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Macclesfield win | 42.8% | 45.3% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 50.8% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.4% | 30.2% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 54.6% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 35.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marine 45.5 / Macclesfield 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.