Darlington vs Worksop
National League North, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
LLWLL
LLLWLThe score model made a Darlington win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Darlington 1.73 – 1.33 Worksop.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington win | 47.0% | 42.8% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Worksop win | 29.6% | 30.4% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | 54.4% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.8% | 34.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 58.1% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 37.3% | +5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Darlington 56.5 / Worksop 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.