Chorley vs Chester
National League North, England · 2026-08-08 · 16:00 CET
WDDLW
WDLDLThe score model made a Chorley win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chorley 1.33 – 1.17 Chester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley win | 40.3% | 35.3% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 28.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Chester win | 32.9% | 36.0% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 46.8% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 26.7% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 52.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 32.7% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chorley 56.4 / Chester 57.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.