Tranmere vs Walsall
League Two, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
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DDWLWThe score model made a Walsall win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tranmere 1.21 – 1.42 Walsall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 32.1% | 39.2% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 28.2% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Walsall win | 41.6% | 32.6% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 52.1% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 31.4% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 57.4% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 35.5% | -10.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tranmere 57.9 / Walsall 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tranmere vs Walsall in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.