Swindon vs Accrington
League Two, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
LDWDW
DWDWDThe score model made a Swindon win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Swindon 1.80 – 1.12 Accrington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 53.2% | 43.2% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 26.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Accrington win | 23.5% | 30.3% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 54.0% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.6% | 33.4% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 58.0% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 37.2% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Swindon 57.7 / Accrington 55.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Swindon vs Accrington in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.