Crewe vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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WLWWDThe score model made a Crewe win the most likely outcome at 56%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crewe 1.55 – 0.76 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 56.2% | 49.1% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 27.0% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Shrewsbury win | 18.2% | 23.9% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 49.6% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 28.9% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 53.0% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 34.5% | -4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crewe 57.6 / Shrewsbury 33.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Crewe vs Shrewsbury in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.