Colchester vs Cheltenham
League Two, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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LLLWWThe score model made a Colchester win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Colchester 1.67 – 1.09 Cheltenham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 50.9% | 46.1% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Cheltenham win | 24.8% | 27.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 53.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 33.3% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 57.0% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 37.0% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Colchester 57.8 / Cheltenham 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Colchester vs Cheltenham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.