Barnet vs Fleetwood
League Two, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
WWWLD
LDWLLThe score model made a Barnet win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barnet 1.70 – 1.07 Fleetwood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 52.1% | 56.8% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Fleetwood win | 23.9% | 19.7% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 56.3% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.9% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 56.1% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.0% | 38.5% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barnet 33.7 / Fleetwood 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Barnet vs Fleetwood in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.