Walsall vs Grimsby
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
WDWDD
WDDDDThe score model made a Walsall win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Walsall 1.41 – 1.29 Grimsby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 40.3% | 32.2% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 29.1% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Grimsby win | 34.5% | 38.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 45.2% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.2% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | 51.3% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 31.2% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Walsall 56.1 / Grimsby 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.