Shrewsbury vs Barnet
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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WWDDDThe score model made a Barnet win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shrewsbury 0.92 – 1.65 Barnet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 21.3% | 25.2% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 27.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Barnet win | 54.8% | 47.4% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 48.5% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 28.5% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 52.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 33.3% | +1.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shrewsbury 30.4 / Barnet 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.