Salford vs Chesterfield
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
LLLWW
LWLDDThe score model made a Salford win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Salford 1.33 – 1.29 Chesterfield.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 38.0% | 43.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 28.4% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Chesterfield win | 36.2% | 28.6% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 46.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 26.8% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 51.8% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 32.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Salford 57.7 / Chesterfield 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.