Port Vale vs Tranmere
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LDDLL
WDDDWThe score model made a Port Vale win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Port Vale 1.73 – 0.90 Tranmere.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 57.4% | 47.8% | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 28.3% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Tranmere win | 19.5% | 23.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 44.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 24.6% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 49.1% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 30.8% | -3.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Port Vale 15.8 / Tranmere 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.