Colchester vs Oldham
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWWLL
WLWDLThe score model made an Oldham win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Colchester 1.03 – 1.11 Oldham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 33.6% | 35.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.0% | 28.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Oldham win | 37.5% | 36.1% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 49.7% | -13.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 29.2% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 55.3% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 33.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Colchester 56.1 / Oldham 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.