Bristol Rovers vs Newport
League Two, England · 2026-08-22 · 13:30 CET
LWWWW
WLDLLThe score model made a Bristol Rovers win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 5:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol Rovers 1.72 – 1.14 Newport.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers win | 51.2% | 55.6% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Newport win | 25.5% | 19.6% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 51.6% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 30.9% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 52.6% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 35.6% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bristol Rovers 30.4 / Newport 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.