Tranmere vs Shrewsbury
League Two, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model made a Tranmere win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tranmere 1.38 – 1.06 Shrewsbury.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 44.3% | 40.3% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 28.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Shrewsbury win | 29.2% | 30.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 44.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 24.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 50.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 31.1% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tranmere 55.9 / Shrewsbury 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.