Gillingham vs Walsall
League Two, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LDDDW
WDWDDThe score model made a Walsall win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gillingham 1.12 – 1.28 Walsall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 32.5% | 39.6% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 29.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Walsall win | 40.4% | 31.4% | +8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 46.9% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 26.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 53.2% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 32.1% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gillingham 56 / Walsall 55.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.