Crawley vs Crewe
League Two, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LWLDL
WWDDDThe score model made a Crewe win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crawley 1.13 – 1.28 Crewe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley win | 32.7% | 36.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 28.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Crewe win | 40.2% | 35.4% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 49.5% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.3% | 29.3% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 55.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 34.2% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crawley 40.8 / Crewe 55.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.