Chesterfield vs Fleetwood
League Two, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LWLDD
WDDDWThe score model made a Chesterfield win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chesterfield 1.57 – 1.03 Fleetwood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 50.1% | 51.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.9% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Fleetwood win | 25.0% | 21.5% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 47.5% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 27.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 50.5% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 32.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chesterfield 46.6 / Fleetwood 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.