Accrington vs Colchester
League Two, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
DLLDW
DWWLLThe score model made a Colchester win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Accrington 1.05 – 1.20 Colchester.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 32.0% | 35.2% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 29.5% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Colchester win | 39.8% | 35.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.1% | 45.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.1% | 25.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 51.8% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 31.3% | -3.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Accrington 52.5 / Colchester 56 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.