Plymouth vs Burton
League One, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
WLLWD
LDDWLThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plymouth 2.03 – 1.04 Burton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 60.3% | 61.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 21.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Burton win | 18.7% | 17.2% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | 58.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.7% | 37.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 54.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 40.5% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plymouth 37.1 / Burton 58 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Plymouth vs Burton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.