Cambridge Utd vs AFC Wimbledon
League One, England · 2026-09-26 · 16:00 CET
WDLDL
LLLDLThe score model made a Cambridge Utd win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cambridge Utd 1.36 – 1.02 AFC Wimbledon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge Utd win | 44.6% | 51.0% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.8% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 28.0% | 22.1% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 46.6% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 26.9% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 49.6% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 32.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cambridge Utd 30.4 / AFC Wimbledon 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cambridge Utd vs AFC Wimbledon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.