Peterborough vs Doncaster
League One, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LWDLD
WWLLWThe score model made a Peterborough win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Peterborough 1.75 – 1.16 Doncaster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough win | 51.2% | 37.1% | +14.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 26.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Doncaster win | 25.2% | 36.7% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 59.7% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 39.2% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 63.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 41.3% | -11.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Peterborough 57.9 / Doncaster 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Peterborough vs Doncaster in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.