Oxford Utd vs Cambridge Utd
League One, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
DWDWD
DWWDLThe score model made an Oxford Utd win the most likely outcome at 65%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oxford Utd 2.15 – 0.95 Cambridge Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford Utd win | 64.8% | 44.9% | +19.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 27.5% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Cambridge Utd win | 15.6% | 27.6% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 48.9% | +11.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 28.8% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 53.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 34.0% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oxford Utd 14.7 / Cambridge Utd 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Oxford Utd vs Cambridge Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.