Leyton Orient vs Stevenage
League One, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
LDWLL
LWLWLThe score model made a Leyton Orient win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leyton Orient 1.23 – 0.99 Stevenage.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient win | 41.6% | 38.1% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 29.3% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Stevenage win | 29.7% | 32.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.3% | 43.6% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.5% | 24.2% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 49.7% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 30.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leyton Orient 54.8 / Stevenage 56.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leyton Orient vs Stevenage in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.