Blackpool vs Plymouth
League One, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
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WWLLWThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Blackpool 1.47 – 1.48 Plymouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool win | 37.5% | 32.8% | +4.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Plymouth win | 37.9% | 41.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 57.9% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 37.2% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | 61.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 39.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Blackpool 54.7 / Plymouth 36.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Blackpool vs Plymouth in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.