Wigan vs Leyton Orient
League One, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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LWLWDThe score model made a Wigan win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wigan 1.21 – 1.09 Leyton Orient.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 39.3% | 45.4% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Leyton Orient win | 33.3% | 26.2% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 46.4% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% | 26.5% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 51.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 31.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wigan 52.9 / Leyton Orient 52.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.