Plymouth vs Stockport County
League One, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
LDWLW
WLWLWThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plymouth 1.66 – 1.40 Stockport County.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 44.2% | 44.8% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 26.4% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Stockport County win | 32.7% | 28.8% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 55.4% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 34.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 58.9% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 37.8% | +6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plymouth 33.4 / Stockport County 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.