Mansfield vs Doncaster
League One, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
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LDDDLThe score model made a Mansfield win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mansfield 1.63 – 0.96 Doncaster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 53.5% | 43.7% | +9.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 27.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Doncaster win | 22.6% | 28.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 50.7% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 30.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 55.1% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 34.1% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mansfield 45.4 / Doncaster 29.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.