Cambridge Utd vs Wigan
League One, England · 2026-08-15 · 16:00 CET
WDLWD
LLLWLThe score model made a Wigan win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cambridge Utd 0.95 – 1.06 Wigan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge Utd win | 32.2% | 39.5% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Wigan win | 38.0% | 30.9% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.5% | 43.5% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 24.0% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.5% | 49.9% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 30.2% | -5.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cambridge Utd 26.1 / Wigan 52.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.