Wrexham vs Wolves
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
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LWDWWThe score model makes a Wolves win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 53.7% vs 50.4% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wrexham 1.30 – 1.52 Wolves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 32.2% | 31.7% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.5% | -0.8% |
| Wolves win | 42.1% | 41.8% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 50.4% | +3.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 29.7% | +1.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 55.1% | +2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 34.6% | -0.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Wrexham 37.8 / Wolves 12.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wrexham vs Wolves in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.