Watford vs Middlesbrough
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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WWDWWThe score model makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome at 62%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 58.8% vs 55.1% implied (+3.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Watford 1.09 – 2.18 Middlesbrough.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 17.8% | 18.2% | -0.4% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 20.9% | -0.5% |
| Middlesbrough win | 61.8% | 60.9% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 65.1% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 44.9% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 60.9% | -1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 44.3% | -2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Watford 59.4 / Middlesbrough 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Watford vs Middlesbrough in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.