QPR vs Lincoln
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DWLWL
LLDWLThe score model makes a QPR win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.0% vs 63.0% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: QPR 1.83 – 1.07 Lincoln.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 55.0% | 51.7% | +3.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.3% | -1.9% |
| Lincoln win | 21.5% | 23.0% | -1.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 56.4% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 37.0% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | 57.2% | -1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.4% | -0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: QPR 59.4 / Lincoln 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open QPR vs Lincoln in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.