Preston vs Southampton
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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WWDWWThe score model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.6% vs 58.5% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Preston 1.16 – 1.75 Southampton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 24.9% | 18.2% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 24.2% | 21.4% | +2.8% |
| Southampton win | 50.9% | 60.4% | -9.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 61.7% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 41.5% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 58.7% | -1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 42.1% | -3.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Preston 59.3 / Southampton 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Preston vs Southampton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.