Portsmouth vs Stoke
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
WWDWD
WLWDWThe score model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Portsmouth win — 46.2% vs 39.2% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.46 – 1.05 Stoke.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 46.2% | 39.2% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 28.4% | -1.4% |
| Stoke win | 26.8% | 32.4% | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 44.6% | +1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 26.6% | -2.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 50.1% | +0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 30.8% | -0.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Portsmouth 51.6 / Stoke 59.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Portsmouth vs Stoke in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.