Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
DDLLL
WLWDWThe score model makes a Sheffield Utd win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 57.7% vs 49.9% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Charlton 1.04 – 1.33 Sheffield Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 28.6% | 30.2% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 26.9% | +1.3% |
| Sheffield Utd win | 43.1% | 42.9% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | 50.1% | -7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 29.3% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 54.3% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 33.9% | -2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Charlton 38.4 / Sheffield Utd 52.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Charlton vs Sheffield Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.