Cardiff vs Burnley
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
LWDWL
WDLLDThe score model makes a Cardiff win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.5% vs 56.6% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cardiff 1.47 – 1.41 Burnley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 38.7% | 41.5% | -2.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.0% | +0.6% |
| Burnley win | 35.7% | 33.6% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 63.2% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 43.4% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 65.1% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 42.5% | -4.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Cardiff 33.6 / Burnley 27.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cardiff vs Burnley in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.