Bristol City vs Norwich
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 13:30 CET
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LLLWWThe score model makes a Bristol City win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Bristol City win — 41.5% vs 36.7% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.55 – 1.36 Norwich.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 41.5% | 36.7% | +4.9% |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.9% | -1.6% |
| Norwich win | 33.1% | 36.4% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 55.3% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 35.0% | -1.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 59.7% | -0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 37.6% | -2.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bristol City 59.3 / Norwich 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bristol City vs Norwich in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.