Blackburn vs West Ham
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WWLWL
DWWLLThe score model makes a West Ham win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 60.9% vs 56.7% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Blackburn 1.20 – 2.03 West Ham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 21.7% | 19.9% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.6% | -0.8% |
| West Ham win | 56.4% | 57.5% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | 58.9% | +3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% | 39.6% | +0.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | 56.7% | +4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.7% | 40.8% | +2.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Blackburn 59.9 / West Ham 12 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Blackburn vs West Ham in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.