Birmingham vs Swansea
Championship, England · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WWWLW
WWLLWThe score model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 68.5% vs 65.9% implied (+2.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Birmingham 1.56 – 1.07 Swansea.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 48.1% | 47.3% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.6% | -0.5% |
| Swansea win | 25.8% | 26.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 50.4% | -1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 29.4% | -2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 53.9% | -1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.1% | -2.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Birmingham 46.5 / Swansea 59.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Birmingham vs Swansea in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.