Stoke vs Sheffield Utd
Championship, England · 2026-09-19 · 13:30 CET
WWLWD
LWLWDThe score model made a Sheffield Utd win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stoke 1.19 – 1.24 Sheffield Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 34.3% | 41.4% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 28.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Sheffield Utd win | 36.8% | 29.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 49.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 29.2% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 54.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.1% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stoke 58.6 / Sheffield Utd 51.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stoke vs Sheffield Utd in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.