Cardiff vs Charlton
Championship, England · 2026-09-19 · 13:30 CET
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LDDLLThe score model made a Cardiff win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 3:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cardiff 1.08 – 1.00 Charlton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 36.2% | 55.0% | -18.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 23.6% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Charlton win | 32.3% | 21.4% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 57.3% | -22.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 35.9% | -20.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 57.5% | -14.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 38.7% | -14.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cardiff 30.6 / Charlton 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Cardiff vs Charlton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.