Bristol City vs Watford
Championship, England · 2026-09-18 · 21:00 CET
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LLLWLThe score model made a Bristol City win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.47 – 1.01 Watford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 47.2% | 54.0% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 24.6% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Watford win | 25.1% | 21.4% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 54.9% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 33.8% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 55.6% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 36.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bristol City 58.7 / Watford 58.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bristol City vs Watford in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.