West Brom vs Burnley
Championship, England · 2026-08-23 · 13:00 CET
WLDWW
LLDLDThe score model made a Burnley win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: West Brom 0.67 – 1.28 Burnley.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 18.8% | 37.0% | -18.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 28.8% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Burnley win | 50.7% | 34.2% | +16.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.9% | 47.0% | -16.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.4% | 26.9% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 35.8% | 52.7% | -16.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 31.9% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: West Brom 55.9 / Burnley 19.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.